9 December 2024
The Fruits of Defeat?
(Originally published in "The Daily Blog")
New Zealand entered the Vietnam war on behalf of the United States in 1963 with a small force of artillery and infantry and other military personnel. 37 New Zealand soldiers died and 187 were wounded. These losses were modest compared to the previous world wars which New Zealand had fought on behalf of Britain, and the subsequent Korean war fought for the United States.
There was never any serious pretence that New Zealand's own national interest was directly involved in the Vietnam war. The public was simply told that New Zealand's troops were there because "if we don't support the US now, we cannot expect them to come to our aid in the future". As shown by its cavalier treatment of the troops who did return home "safely", the New Zealand state was not at all fazed by its losses in the conflict. However despite the best efforts of the United States and the combined contributions of New Zealand, Australia, South Korea and the Philippines the war was lost.
What did defeat look like for New Zealand? Not too bad as it turned out. For reasons of their own, the US and Vietnam reached a rapprochement. Vietnam, as the victor, was able to set the terms of its new relationship with the US. Things would have been different if the US had been victorious as it, and all its allies, had anticipated would be the case. The US would have made Vietnam into an economic, political and military vassal state, rather like the Philippines. New Zealand and the other minor US allies would hardly have got a look in. But a victorious Vietnam was not going to discriminate in favour of the US against its minions, and so New Zealand developed a healthy trading and diplomatic relationship with its erstwhile enemy, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.
This serendipitous turn of events gave rise to a belief in Wellington that there was no downside to defeat in a war waged on behalf of Washington, so long as the military contribution was only on a token scale. Thus New Zealand became involved in more such wars.
New Zealand's Special Air Service (NZSAS) deployed to Afghanistan between 2001 and 2014. 10 deaths were recorded. Defeat followed in 2021. Again, the contribution was a token one, and the losses were modest from the perspective of the New Zealand government. Yet thus far there has been no rapprochement between the US and Afghanistan, because the US has no need for such, and the Taliban government evidently has little desire for it. So despite New Zealand having a significant Afghan refugee population, so far there has been no restoration of trade or diplomatic links with Afghanistan.
In quick succession New Zealand then deployed troops to US-led wars in Ukraine (2023) and the Middle East (2024). The familiar pattern of token deployment of troops and military equipment was followed, and we can safely assume that Wellington is betting that the ultimate outcome will be similar to the Vietnam war, meaning that from the New Zealand perspective defeat will be as good as, or even better than, victory.
The problem with victory is that while the United States can be petulant towards its former enemies, it can be absolutely vindictive towards its current allies. This is seen in the Ukraine war, which the United States has used to undermine the German economy despite the fact that Germany has rigidly supported the US in both the war against Russia and the Gaza genocide. The US has carried through its campaign against Germany by destroying the NordStream 2 gas pipeline while obliging Germany to boycott the Russian economy and to give generous financial support to Ukraine.
The US will pick the fruits of victory in Ukraine and the Middle East, and its allies will be literally left in the cold. Yet Wellington seems to suppose that defeat will play out with Russia and Ukraine as it did with Vietnam. That is why New Zealand is not so unhappy to be facing defeat in Ukraine, which seems a real prospect as the US scales down its support for Kyiv. New Zealand will suffer small losses (only two fighters known to have been lost in Ukraine to date), will keep on side with its "traditional" and overbearing ally, the US, and perhaps imagines that it will still have a chance to capitalize on the rebuilding of the Russian and Ukrainian economies.
That last is a naive hope which depends entirely on the conditions under which the war is concluded, and how the US responds. Think back to Afghanistan. Three years after the defeat there has been no settlement with Afghanistan, primarily because the US has found no reason to settle. Will it find a reason to settle with Russia? Perhaps and perhaps not. Once the war is over, US sanctions against Russia may be left in place, which means New Zealand also will be cut out of any part in the reconstruction or normal on-going trade and investment.
The Middle East is similarly problematic for New Zealand. In the less likely event of US forces and proxies in the region being defeated by the "Axis of Resistance", there will be no upside for New Zealand. Severe US sanctions will remain and New Zealand will be forced to abide by them. Neither will there be a dividend for victory. New Zealand's investment will have been miniscule. A handful of military personnel and some disruption to trade, but disregarding the reputational cost, we can be reasonably sure that neither victory nor defeat will bring benefits to New Zealand in that particular conflict.
The real test for the "fruits of defeat" strategy will come in a Aukus Tier 2 conflict with China. On the face of it Tier 2 looks like a low-cost or even "token" commitment to war with China. However the first very real question is whether there can be even the possibility of a "token" involvement in a war between US and the PRC. Does Wellington imagine that it will once again escape with only double digit casualties in such a conflict? Then, does it suppose that a victorious or even unbowed China will be as magnanimous to its enemies as the Socialist Republic of Vietnam?
Victory is not a given and the fruits of defeat cannot be taken for granted. Wellington needs to re-think the strategy it has followed for the past half century.
Footnote. 20 December 2024
While Russia is slowly chipping away at Ukraine's south and east, the United States is making equally impressive gains in the rest of the country. "over nine million hectares — exceeding 28 percent of Ukraine’s arable land" has gone to "a mix of Ukrainian oligarchs and foreign interests — mostly European and North American as well as the sovereign fund of Saudi Arabia. Prominent US pension funds, foundations, and university endowments are invested through NCH Capital, a US-based private equity fund. Several agribusinesses, still largely controlled by oligarchs, have opened up to Western banks and investment funds — including prominent ones such as Kopernik, BNP, or Vanguard — who now control part of their shares. Most of the large landholders are substantially indebted to Western funds and institutions, notably the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank" (Oakland Institute). Of course debts to global capital are the first steps towards alienation of assets as New Zealanders well know.
New Zealand has only made a paltry contribution to the war, but still, would it not be entitled to at least a small share of the booty? By rights it would, but it will not get it.
This war has killed and maimed hundreds of thousands on both sides, it has destroyed cities, towns and villages, wrecked infrastructure and will leave behind decades of grief and bitterness. In the end, Ukraine will come out with a shattered nation and reduced territory, all for nothing. The dispute with Russia would have been peacefully and honorably resolved five years ago if it had not been for the meddling of the collective west, including New Zealand.
Will Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon ever apologise for the suffering they have inflicted upon the Ukrainian people? Do they feel remorse? I doubt it. They will just go on to promote new wars somewhere else, wars which they will not personally have to fight and which will present no direct threat to their own wealth and privilege. When things go badly, they will walk away, forgetting all their promises of enduring solidarity. When things go "well" for them they will commit genocide, indiscriminately bombing and starving men, women and children till there is no longer any resistance, or no life remaining at all.
This is what the Realm of New Zealand gives to the world. Exactly what it has given to our own people over two centuries of colonialist rule. It is an evil which must be denounced, denied and destroyed.